British Columbia finds itself in political uncertainty until at least Monday when Elections ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½’s final vote count will either confirm a one-seat lead for the ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ NDP over the ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Conservatives or throw the province into more upheaval.
In the initial vote count on Saturday night, the ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ NDP sit at 46 seats, the ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Conservatives at 45 — both falling short of the 47 needed for a majority — and the ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Greens are at two seats.
“In any election, it’s important to appreciate that the public speaks through the results,” said Royal Roads University political scientist David Black. “Any election is understood to be an expression of the public’s will, in the sense of who they want in, and what they want from, government.”
The final vote count Oct. 26. to 28 will involve approximately 49,000 votes which include mail-in and out-of-district votes that came in after advance polls closed.
There will be a recount in Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey Centre; in both those ridings, the initial count showed the NDP leading by fewer than 100 votes. There may be a judicial recount if the Elections ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ recount is challenged.
Black said in essence, because the government needs to produce a Speaker — who can only vote in tie votes — a governing party needs 48 seats.
If the worst case for the NDP happens next week and they lose two seats in the recounts, the NDP would fall to 44 (or 46 with Green support) and the Conservatives would bump up to 47 but because they would have to produce a Speaker they’d be back down to 46.
The two parties would be “in a sort of weird deadlock situation where no one has a working majority and provides a Speaker at the same time.”
Black views the election result as a sort of a protest vote not necessarily of the governing party but more generally of the state of the province.
“There is an anger, there’s a disappointment, there’s a hunger for change and fixing what in some ways is a kind of broken system and a lack of trust that the government is in a position to fix it,” said Black, citing the state of health care, affordability and public safety.
“The public has put a minority government, given its fragility, on a very tight leash,” said Black. “A minority government by definition is always one confidence vote away from collapsing and has to be more responsive to its cabinet and caucus and in how it takes direction from the public.“
While all this is sorted, the government remains in caretaker mode with NDP Premier David Eby and his cabinet remaining in place with full powers until a new government is formed.
If the seat count remains the same next week, that’s when negotiations would likely begin between the NDP and Greens, said Black, noting those two parties are closer aligned; a deal between the Conservatives and Greens seems unlikely.
If neither party can form a majority next week, Black said, there are three options: a coalition government (a rare move where, in this case, the Greens would join the NDP cabinet, for example, but lose autonomy); a supply and confidence agreement (the Greens signed one with the NDP in 2017 but were angered when the NDP broke it with a snap election in 2020); or the minority government proceeds on a day-to-day basis vulnerable to losing a confidence motion and collapsing.
Black said Eby’s comments on election night and since have seen him acknowledge the frustrations reflected by the Conservative party and that he’s heard the electorate while he signalled he is open to “some kind of arrangement” with the Greens.
Black said it would be going too far for the Greens to ask either party to introduce proportional representation voting without a referendum, as an example, but he imagines maintaining the carbon tax “will be front and centre” on the Greens’ list of demands.
Adam Olsen, retiring as MLA for Saanich North and the Islands, who is the Green party campaign chair, said “a functional government is going to require the ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Greens.”
Although Green Leader Sonia Furnstenau lost her bid for a seat in the Victoria-Beacon Hill riding after moving from the Cowichan Valley where she was first elected in 2017, Olsen said she’s earned “any role that she chooses and any role that she wants.”
Furstenau said in her election night speech she’s committed to the Green movement that she’s been so much a part of building and has offered her mentorship.
Rob Botterell, who picked up the Island’s only Green seat in Saanich North and the Islands, said he’s focused on setting up his campaign office this week and is mum on the future for now. “We don’t know what’s going to happen, we won’t know until next week,” Botterell said Monday.
He said he’s looking forward to working with Furstenau, Olsen and fellow Green MLA-elect Jeremy Valeriote, representing West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, “and figuring out the path forward once we know exactly what’s happening in the legislature.”
As a former TD Bank regional comptroller and retired lawyer, Botterell acknowledges he has the skills and experience to support the Green party in numerous ways but it’s “premature” to weigh in now. “I just want to serve all of the constituents of all political stripes and I just want to bring every skill that I’ve developed over the last lot of years to make ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ and the riding a better place, and supporting Sonia, and doing everything I can to see the ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Green platform achieved.”
