Vancouver Island, which has largely been a safe haven for New Democrats and Greens for decades, is becoming competitive in several ridings, says Royal Roads professor David Black.
“If the Conservatives pick up one, two, or even three seats — they are leaning in one, a toss-up possibility in two others — it’s fair to say the Island has become more competitive again, as it was not long ago,” Black said.
Black said polling data suggests of the 15 ridings on Vancouver Island, the ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ NDP could retain 10 seats after the Oct. 19 election, the ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Greens two seats, the ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Conservatives are leaning towards picking up at least one seat, and two more are too close to call.
“We’re seeing a little bit more variety, a little bit more in the way of competitive races up and down the island,” Black said.
”It’s not going back to where it used to be, where all kinds of parties could win here, it’s still a relatively safe place for NDP and Green candidates, but you’re seeing certainly more opportunities for ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Conservative pick-ups, and that was not the case not so long ago.” Parksville-Qualicum’s Michelle Stilwell in 2017 was the last ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Liberal elected on the Island.
Black tends to agree with 338ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ polling that favours the NDP in Courtenay-Comox, Mid Island-Pacific Rim, Cowichan Valley, Esquimalt-Colwood, Juan de Fuca-Malahat, Langford-Highlands, Nanaimo-Gabriola Island, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Saanich-South and Victoria-Swan Lake.
Glen Sanford, NDP regional director for Vancouver Island, said there’s a lot of close constituencies, with at least four three-way splits in the south Island. “One of the messages that we’re hearing back from people we’re talking to on the doorstep is they don’t want [Conservative leader] John Rustad, they want to continue the forward progress that they’ve seen with David Eby and the ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ NDP.”
The ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Conservative Party campaign could not be immediately reached for comment.
Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau, who is running against NDP incumbent and cabinet minister Grace Lore and ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Conservative and lawyer Tim Thielmann, could pull off an upset and win Victoria-Beacon Hill, said Black, citing polling from 338ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ and Mainstreet Research.
Green campaign chair and departing Saanich North and the Islands Green MLA Adam Olsen said Furstenau’s campaign is “very encouraged” by polling trending in her direction and suspect “it will only continue to build.” Olsen said the leader’s strong debating skills and consistency as demonstrated in radio and TV debates are important skills as an MLA.
“I think that it was made clear in the debate, and I think what we’re seeing is people are embracing her as a candidate, is that she needs to be in the ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ legislature. She’s demonstrated after the last seven years that she needs to be there.” Furstenau won Cowichan Valley in 2017 and 2020.
Polling suggests “unsurprisingly” that Green candidate and retired lawyer Rob Botterell is likely to win Saanich North and the Islands, Black said. Botterell is running against Conservative and lawyer David Busch, Independent and small-business owner Amy Haysom, and ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ NDP and civil servant Sarah Riddell. “That’s the safest provincial Green riding, bar none,” Black said. It was held by Olsen who decided for personal reasons not to run again.
Victoria-Beacon Hill is one of the more interesting ridings politically, because while “no one would want to underestimate Sonia Furstenau’s ability” or popularity, the NDP for many election cycles has won that riding by 25 percentage points and Lore has a popular following there, Black said. “So that’s a hill to climb for any other candidate who’s not an NDP candidate. All I can say is that the Greens are throwing a lot of resources at Furstenau’s candidacy for obvious reasons and are determined to make this truly competitive, so we’ll see.”
Black puts two ridings in the too-close-to-call category: Nanaimo-Lantzville and North Island.
In Nanaimo-Lantzville, ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Conservative Gwen O’Mahony, a former Chilliwack NDP MLA from 2012-2013, is squaring off against ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ NDP “wunderkind” George Anderson — a commercial lawyer and one of the youngest people ever voted to Nanaimo council — and Green Lia Versaevel, Black said.
O’Mahony recently left the NDP over the party’s drug decriminalization policies and put a provincial review in motion after she criticized a pilot project in which vending machines dispense harm-reduction supplies outside three Island hospitals.
Meanwhile, in the North Island riding, NDP incumbent Michele Babchuk is up against stiff competition from ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Conservative Anna Kindy, a physician, and Green Nic Dedeluk, a marine biologist.
In Ladysmith-Oceanside some polls are leaning toward ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Conservative Brett Fee winning that riding. The new riding boundary cobbles together Ladysmith, south of Nanaimo, rural districts west of Nanaimo, and Qualicum and Parksville — “consistently a safer place for more right-wing voters,” Black said.
Also making the riding interesting, said Black, is the “classic vote-splitting” between ousted NDP MLA Adam Walker, now running as an Independent, in a race against ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ NDP candidate Stephanie Higginson and ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Green Laura Ferreira.
Black suggests the Island is not expected to play a main role in this year’s provincial election. Rather, attention will be focused on the Lower Mainland and to a lesser extent in the Fraser Valley.
