The average sales price of all types of Greater Victoria homes slid by almost eight per cent in April compared with the same month last year, says the ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Real Estate Association.
In the capital region, the average stood at $455,143 in April, down from $494,204 in the same month last year, the association said yesterday. Province-wide, the average slid by six per cent to $449,372.
But in both the Greater Victoria and nationally, sales have been surging in recent months, prompting some real-estate analysts to say the market's direction is changing.
The bulk of price reduction in ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ has already taken place, Cameron Muir, ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Real Estate Association chief economist, said from Vancouver.
Average prices will be lower for 2009 than last year, but "most of that price decline has already been realized," he said.
Typically, during a recession or change in a housing cycle, home prices tend to fall more rapidly at the start, and then that rate of decline diminishes, he said. "Right now, we are seeing much, much less downward pressure on home prices," Muir said.
"Downward pressure in prices is largely a result of an imbalance between supply and demand in the marketplace. That imbalance has narrowed considerably in many markets."
There is, however, downward pressure in markets outside Victoria and the Lower Mainland, he said.
Greater Victoria, in terms of its demand and supply relationship, is the "strongest market in the province right now," he said.
That's because the ratio of sales to active listings in April -- at 23.3 per cent -- was almost identical to April 2008, at 23.6 per cent, Muir said. That signals that last month, Greater Victoria's housing market was in a balanced condition.
A total of 3,047 residential properties were for sale through the Multiple Listing Service in April, close to the 3,087 available in April 2008, the association said.
Rudy Nielsen, president of Landcor Data Corp. in Vancouver, said the market may be close to the bottom, given the strong increase in sales in the first quarter of this year. "Lower prices and lower mortgage rates may be starting to move more potential buyers off the fence and into the market."
Overall, the first quarter of this year saw provincial residential sales of 13,786, the lowest level of sales in 24 years, Nielsen said. Vancouver Island's sales slid to 2,264 in the first quarter of the year from 4,661 in the same months last year.
Nonetheless, Nielsen said, "I think we're beginning to see a light at the end of the tunnel," pointing to increasing month-over-month sales.
A larger-than-expected number of sales in recent months prompted the Canadian Real Estate Association to revise its forecast for this year and next.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, there were 34,838 unit sales last month, an 11.2 per cent increase from March and the largest monthly jump in sales since March, 2004. "This spring has been strong," said Gregory Klump, the association's chief economist.
Its latest forecast predicts that ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ prices will decline by 6.9 per cent this year, and nationwide prices will drop by 5.2 per cent.
ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½'s average price for all types of housing is predicted to slide to $287,700 this year, from $303,594 last year, the national association said. Both ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ and ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ are expected to see average prices climb next year by 1.7 per cent.
