The result of British Columbia’s election will come down to the count of absentee ballots today after a tally of mail-in votes over the weekend failed to resolve a handful of undecided races.
There was no shift in the party standings after the count of mail-in and assisted telephone ballots was completed Sunday, along with a recount in Surrey City Centre and a partial recount in Kelowna Centre.
Both hand recounts resulted in margins being reduced by only a few votes.
Prospects for an NDP government had increased on Saturday after the party widened leads in some close races and cut back the ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Conservatives’ margins in others, thanks to mail-in ballots.
The closest undecided riding in the province was Surrey-Guildford, where the NDP cut the ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Conservatives’ lead to 12 votes.
With an estimated 226 absentee and special votes still to be counted there, Surrey-Guildford could provide David Eby’s New Democrats with the narrowest of majorities if the lead there flips Monday.
Eby issued a statement on social media Sunday saying Elections ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ is ensuring all votes in the election are counted.
The agency is an independent, non-partisan office of the legislature that administers ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ elections and byelections.
“We knew this was going to be a close election, but we’ve been here before,” Eby said on social media platform X.
“BCers support our fair election process and the people at Elections ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ (are) making sure every vote gets counted. Thanks to candidates, volunteers and election workers who make democracy work.”
Elections ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ said the tally of more than 22,000 absentee and special votes will begin at 9 a.m. Monday, with the results then updated on its website hourly “as counting progresses.”
The NDP is elected or leading in 46 seats and John Rustad’s Conservatives in 45, both short of a 47-seat majority, while the Greens could hold the balance of power with two seats.
Full hand recounts got underway Sunday afternoon in two ridings where the New Democrats held slim leads after the initial count in the still-undecided Oct. 19 vote.
Elections ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ said the recount in Surrey City Centre was completed Sunday night, resulting in the NDP’s lead being reduced to 175 votes from 178 votes.
It said the result of the recount in Juan de Fuca-Malahat, where the NDP leads by 106 votes, would be announced on Monday.
The recounts were triggered because margins of victory after the initial tally were below 100 votes. But counting of mail-in ballots on Saturday had widened the NDP’s lead in both ridings considerably.
While the makeup of the 93-riding legislature could finally become clear on Monday, judicial recounts could still take place after that if the margin in a riding is less than 1/500th of all votes cast.
For example, in the closest race of Surrey-Guildford, where the total votes cast is estimated at 19,306, the margin required for a judicial recount is about 38 votes or fewer.
In another close race that will come down to absentee ballots, the Conservatives held a 68-vote lead in Kelowna Centre, where there are an estimated 228 votes left to count. A partial recount of ballots that went through one particular tabulator in Kelowna Centre resulted in the NDP narrowing the gap by four votes on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Chief Clarence Louie, Tribal Chair of the Syilx Okanagan Nation, issued a statement on Sunday calling for the ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Conservative candidate in Juan de Fuca-Malahat to be removed from the party over comments about Indigenous people.
On Friday, the Vancouver Sun published a recording in which a person it identifies as Marina Sapozhnikov calls First Nations people “savages.” The newspaper says the comments came during an election-night conversation with a journalism student.
Louie called the reported comments “abhorrent and racist.”
“These ignorant and hateful comments, which constitute a form of hate speech, have no place in our society. We call on ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ Conservative Leader, John Rustad, to immediately take a clear and strong stand against hate and racism by removing her from his political party,” Louie said.
Rustad issued a statement saying he was “appalled and deeply saddened” by the comments and the party is “taking this matter seriously.”
University of Victoria political scientist Michael J. Prince said his prediction that the mail-in ballots would tend to favour the NDP is coming to pass.
“It seems to be what we’re seeing is that they’re kind of either padding their narrow victories or they’re crawling towards tantalizing possibilities of flipping a seat or two,” he said Sunday afternoon.
The outcome should be in hand Monday night, said Prince, who is Lansdowne Professor of Social Policy at UVic.
“But then there might even still be one or two judicial recounts that maybe continue to prolong the drama for another day or two.”
He said the deflation the NDP must have felt from the election-night results could be easing a little from the modest “swing back in the sense of momentum” seen so far in the recounts.
“I think it’s increasingly looking like they’ll attempt to form a government with probably the support of the Greens, whether that’s a formal supply agreement or whether it’s case by case,” Prince said. “I think the premier must be feeling a little more comfortable.”
He said the Juan de Fuca-Malahat vote could have been quite different if comments attributed by the Vancouver Sun to Conservative candidate Marina Sapozhnikov on election night about First Nations people were said earlier.
Prince said the comments were “blatant in the prejudice and the racism.”
— With files from Ashley Joannou, CP, in Vancouver and Jeff Bell, ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½
