So it appears Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s unpopular government will live on, at least for now. How unpopular?
An average of recent opinion polls puts the Conservatives at 43 per cent popularity, the Liberals at 24, the NDP at 17, the Bloc Québécois at eight, and the Greens at five.
If the election were held today, the Liberals would be reduced to a rump party.
So why does it appear their administration will survive, especially after the Conservatives tabled a vote of no confidence in the government?
To date, the Liberal minority government had survived on the basis of a deal with the NDP, whereby Jagmeet Singh’s party agreed to support the Liberals in exchange for the passage of several NDP priorities.
Singh has withdrawn from that arrangement, which could have brought down the government.
Two things prevented an early election. While Singh had cancelled his deal, he refused to support the Conservative no-confidence vote.
More importantly, the Bloc Québécois stepped onto the stage and likewise refused to back the vote. While the NDP had just enough seats to sustain the government, had the Bloc thrown in with the Conservatives, an early election would have been more likely.
Why are the Bloc MPs doing this?
Political scientist Geneviève Tellier of the University of Ottawa made it clear: “The Bloc only has influence if the government, no matter which one, is a minority.”
And Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet isn’t propping up the Liberals out of the goodness of his heart.
He has rather a long list of demands. These include a raise in old age pensions, more power over immigration for Quebec, more health-care funding, elimination of “the colossal financial aid” to oil companies, and an end of Ottawa’s encroaching on provincial jurisdictions.
In taking this decision, Blanchet made clear that his only interest lies in improving Quebec’s bargaining power. If it means propping up a hugely unpopular government, so be it.
That carries provincialism into indecency.
Now there has been no public statement by Trudeau that he intends to accede to these demands. But it appears a safe bet that the Bloc would not have voted against the Conservatives unless there had been signals their demands would be met, in part or in whole.
The larger question is how Trudeau can remain prime minister when his government is sustained, in part, by separatists bent on wrecking the country.
That might help the Liberals in Quebec, but nationwide, it’s a tall order.
And even in Quebec, Trudeau is playing with fire. At the last federal election, the Bloc and Liberals won nearly the same number of seats — 32 for the Bloc and 35 for the Liberals.
Trudeau’s party gave up one of those seats to the Bloc in last week’s Montreal byelection. Will not the fact that Blanchet can now make open demands on Ottawa render the separatist cause more popular in Quebec?
Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has already promised another referendum on separation before 2030. If the Bloc are now seen to be steering the federal ship of state, that promise can only be strengthened.
This is the first time a Canadian prime minister has agreed to remain in office by pandering to separatists.
But Trudeau is not only doing that, he is aiding and abetting their cause by showing that the Bloc is a force to be reckoned with.
In effect, Trudeau is now prime minister in name only. Our real prime ministers are Jagmeet Singh and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.
And if the Bloc make significant gains when the election finally arrives? Then the stage is set for another referendum on breaking up the country, a truly grim prospect.
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