The 2024 election was a major failure for ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ and it’s got nothing to do with partisan gains or losses. It was a flop by the central measure of arriving at a definitive conclusion. The main goal was to make a decision and get on with it. This one didn’t decide anything, which makes for instability and fragility.
A 1.03 per cent difference after almost two million people voted basically means ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ couldn’t make up its mind.
The NDP’s one-seat edge over the Conservatives — one short of a majority, subject to recounts — makes a four-year term very unlikely.
All the uncertainty on election night was enormously exciting. But when that carries on through the next government, it’s going to get old fast.
Barring a long-shot change in the count, the NDP will work out an arrangement with the Greens to get some shaky control of the legislature and try to carry on.
But that make-up effort to arrive at a conclusion is even more complicated than it was the last time a minority situation developed, in 2017.
Green Leader Sonia Furstenau lost the Victoria-Beacon Hill riding. She’s still the leader and said election night she wants to “mentor, guide and lead the party anyway I can.”
She indicated Monday she plans to stay as leader. But her loss bleeds away some of her authority to bargain with the NDP on terms and conditions. She’s on the outside looking in. Whatever she might negotiate, it’s the two new Green MLAs who have to live with it.
The NDP-Green minority agreement in 2017 arose when they were both optimistic and excited about their respective performances in the election. It survived three years partly because of a warm relationship that developed between then-premier John Horgan and then-Green leader Andrew Weaver.
This time around the NDP are shocked and depressed at how poorly they fared. After winning a big majority in 2020, the prospect of returning to a minority is a big comedown.
Eby and Furstenau get along cordially, which might buy him some time. But the NDP double-crossed the Greens last time with a snap election call that was well outside the terms of the confidence agreement. So a long-term arrangement is unlikely. The NDP will have to get friendly with new Green MLAs Rob Botterell (Saanich North and the Islands) and Jeremy Valeriote (West Vancouver-Sea to Sky) in a hurry. Any understanding about support could be month-by-month, which doesn’t make for a secure mandate.
The two parties have marked differences on the carbon tax, involuntary care for addicted people in desperate straits, the multi-billion dollar LNG industry and taxation policies.
Also, Greens stand for immediate imposition of a new proportional representation voting system. The NDP refused to include that in the 2017 confidence agreement, but put it to a referendum in 2018, where it was defeated. A major change in the voting system was also defeated in 2005, and again in 2009.
While those differences are dealt with, Conservative Leader John Rustad will hold to his promise on election night: “We are going to make it as difficult as possible for NDP to do any more destruction. … We will look … from day one to bring them down at the very first opportunity and get back to the polls.”
With his career hanging on every vote, Premier David Eby will likely keep legislation to a minimum. The legislature itself will likely convene as little as possible.
Investors will look at the new picture and wonder about committing money in such a fluid situation. Business interests continually plead for certainty when it comes to government policies. Election 2024 provided exactly the opposite. It was the definition of awkward uncertainty.
The “boldness” Eby promised during the campaign will likely evaporate and be replaced by tentative, tepid decisions made with day-to-day survival in mind, not long-range thinking.
When the waterline is a centimetre away from the boat’s gunnels, nobody wants to rock it.
Election 2024 cost $69 million. It produced a lot of dithering that will likely need another vote to resolve.
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