Despite the doom and gloom fishing of last summer, and the lean pickings this past winter, the salmon picture for 2009 looks more promising than it did last year. The El Nino warm water phenomenon has changed to an El Nino cold water pattern. As all anglers know, this is good for sockeye. Fewer know that cold water is particularly important for coho salmon, too. The other positive weather trend of the last two years is a stronger Aleutian Low pressure that bolsters the plankton that feed the rest of the chain.
The Department of Fisheries and Oceans puts out an interesting document called the Salmon Stock Outlook for the keeners to take a look at. But in summary, for sockeye, the 101 stocks that comprise the Fraser River run, will allow for retention fisheries designed around the low components of the run. With lower water temperature, look for a greater diversion rate around the southern tip of Vancouver Island. A conservative estimate of 50 per cent means that about five million will pass our doorstep out of a run about 11 million in size.
For you Port Alberni sockeye fishery fans, though, this may not be the year to fish over the hump. There will be more sockeye than the last two poor years, but, typically, a fishery is authorized at 250,000 escapement. You may want to stick around town for another reason this year: this is an odd-numbered year, and everyone knows that means pink salmon through local waters. Fourteen million Fraser pinks will motor through in the July 15 to Sept. 15 period, which is just when the sockeye will go through. Everyone will catch pinks this summer in Victoria. There are added pinks for those of you who fly north to fly fish for pinks; average to good numbers in all the netpen regions from Cowichan Bay to Campbell River with more northerly rivers wild stocks being average to good, too.
The big spring picture has been painted, too. The early Columbians and West Coast Van Isle wild fish will be few and far between -- all anglers will know of the current regs protecting these fish in our waters. On the other hand, Port Renfrew and Victoria should be stronger in the late summer and early September period. Stocks for the South Thompson, and the fall hatchery fish from the Harrison, Stave, and particularly the Chilliwack (i.e., Vedder) will be in good numbers -- better than last year.
It may be a better year to tow the boat to fish the warm calm evenings in front of the big and little Q rivers mid-island, than venture to the west coast. I'd give the Conuma hatchery a call if I were thinking of Nootka Sound -- it's a long tow to Tahsis. If you are thinking of a fishing trip to remote ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ your best bets are the saltwater approach waters for the Nass, Skeena and QCs, in other words, Langara will be more consistently solid this year. These fish pass in greatest numbers before July 15, so consider that in making plans.
Coho numbers will be greatest at northern, QC and mainland coast waters, too, this summer. But not where we live and fish. The Georgia Strait coho are down because of higher water temps, and Fraser fish will be in low numbers as well. On-foot anglers who are looking for coho this summer should trek north to the Keogh River south of Port Hardy.
